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At the beginning of this year’s NCAA competition, might any person have forecasted this would be the Final Four that we were to get? None of the top seed made it to Houston, whilst one of the First Four – genuinely meaning one of the last four selected for the competition in any way – has made it. It would be an unexpected if only one bracket throughout the country was still intact after this last weekend.



Who might have forecasted that one of the national semifinals contests would be competed between the Bulldogs and the VCU Rams? Couple of enough folks anticipated Butler to make it back into the Sweet 16, not to mention the Final Four. And no one genuinely anticipated VCU to make their incredible run in the competition, beating out No. 1 seed Kansas along the way.

So is this year only random chance, or is the era of being able to forecast relatively right national championships coming to an end? In essence, the smaller schools are attracting quality players, and those players stick around for longer than the minimum amount of time necessary to make a name for themselves before declaring for pro basketball Draft.

Programs like Butler and VCU can attract quality players, even if they do not get the pretty best high school players in the country. The huge names like Kansas and Ohio State can acquire the best of the best, but then those players just stay in ncaa for a year or 2 at the most. In the meantime, the smaller schools take advantage and build their players for 3-4 years.

So the upsets we are seeing this year aren’t flukes. They reflect the changing perception of the significance of competing ncaa ball. None of the top seeds lasted long enough to make it to Houston’s semifinal round. Duke is gone, Kansas is gone, the extensively favored Ohio State is gone. Butler, VUC, Kentucky, and Uconn make up just the third Final Four lacking a No. 1 seed since 1979.

The huge conferences were embarrassed out of the competition this year. The Big East and Big Ten got a combined 18 bids this year, and only one squad made it even as far as the Elite 8 – Connecticut. Watch for the smaller conferences and smaller programs to start receiving more competition bids in the future. And watch for them to keep winning given that the “elite” schools recruit expertise at the expense of reliability.


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